How much are OBBBA provisions worth to American households?
Posted
Jaclyn DeJohn, CFP for SmartAsset
How much are OBBBA provisions worth to American households?
Provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) offer Americans additional tax deductions and credits that will take effect for tax year 2025, with many lasting through 2028 and beyond. Many people should expect some tax savings, as the provisions incentivize a wide net of statuses and activities, including young families, seniors, tipped workers, new car purchases, and gifting and inheritance. OBBBA is also structured to provide tax relief regardless of whether you choose the standard or itemized deduction, or whether you file as single, married or head of household.
Households may want to size up the potential impact of OBBBA provisions on their tax strategies, tax prepayments and overall budgets. With this in mind, SmartAsset calculated the expected value residents in each U.S. state may see for the upcoming tax years, thanks to eight different OBBBA provisions, based on the most recent tax return data, financial and demographic data. Additionally, average dollar benefits for families with children, seniors, inheritance, tipped workers, new car purchases and more are distilled at the state level.
The total expected value of OBBBA per household in each state includes prorated amounts for the following tax legislation changes:
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Expected values and estimated savings per return with each provision applied are calculated for each state over a one year period, based on 2025 OBBBA thresholds (2026 in the case of the estate and gift tax exclusion). Estimates are based on local trends in relevant financial, demographic and filing status data at the state level.
Key Findings
Californians have the highest expected value from OBBBA at $2,293. Nationwide, households in five states are projected to save over $2,000 annually through the individual tax provisions, including those in Oregon ($2,227); Massachusetts ($2,150); Connecticut ($2,125); and Hawai’i ($2,078).
The increased standard deduction will save households the most in these states. Based on the rate of households opting for the standard deduction in prior years and the tax rates those households were subject to, households in Alaska ($196.87), New Hampshire ($192.78), and Minnesota ($185.68) stand to save the most from the standard deduction increases.
Households itemizing in Georgia have expected tax savings of nearly $6,000 per year. The 11.81% of households opting to itemize their taxes according to the latest IRS data have the largest projected tax savings because of the boost from $10,000 to $40,000 in SALT deductions, totaling $5,929. Averaged across all tax returns, this leads to an expected value of $333.99 for the SALT provision in Georgia.
Seniors stand to gain the most in these states. This is in addition to any savings from the standard deduction, itemized deduction, and existing senior deduction. Accounting for both married and single seniors, the expected value from the new $6,000 senior deduction is highest in North Dakota at $1,396.92. Seniors in Hawai’i ($1,388.04) and New Jersey ($1,387.08) have similarly high potential payoff from this provision.
Texas residents are projected to save the most on new car purchases. Accounting for the historical number of cars sold and average auto loan account balances in the state, Texas households have the highest expected value for the auto loan interest deduction at $131.56 per tax return.
Residents of these states are projected to benefit most from $1,000 Trump accounts. The fertility rate is highest in South Dakota and Illinois, where, respectively, 125 children and 120 children were born per 1,000 women aged 20 to 34 per the latest data. However, higher-population states are projected to have more total children, with Texas leading at an estimated 298,388 children born per year — followed closely by California at 286,977.
Utah has the highest expected value per return from family-friendly incentives. When considering the additional $200 added to the Child Tax Credit, as well as $1,000 Trump accounts for new babies, Utah households will see the highest benefit at a combined $132.86 per return in expected value. Idaho and Oklahoma follow with expected values of $112.95 and $112.77 per return for both measures.
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OBBBA Tax Savings by State
States are ranked based on the expected value of tax savings per household in each state based on local tax, demographic and financial data.
How to use this data:
Data is broken down for each of the eight OBBBA provisions and their potential impact on households. “Expected values” reflect the average estimated benefits across all tax returns and demographics in a state and are best used to evaluate general trends and macroeconomic impacts. “Savings per tax return” reflects the individual savings a household using the specific provision might anticipate, and is better used to evaluate microeconomic benefits and incentives. The data below can be combined and handled in various ways to reflect specific, custom scenarios.
1. California – Total Expected Value: $2,293.15
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $154.11
Percent standardizing: 84.32%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $182.77
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $818.76
Percent itemizing: 15.68%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $5,221
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $224.61
Population aged 65+: 16.2%
Median senior income: $68,292
Average savings per senior: $1,386.60
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $897.67
Number of estate returns: 5,091
Tax savings per estate: $3,200,000
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $85.54
Average auto loan account balance: $25,196
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,827.15
Annual tax savings per new auto: $318
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $23.19
Number of servers: 224,670
Median income for servers: $35,170
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $2,500
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $15.81
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 70
Estimated children born per year: 286,977
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $73.45
Number of qualifying children: 6,665,106
2. Oregon – Total Expected Value: $2,226.61
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $169.96
Percent standardizing: 87.28%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $194.73
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $699.72
Percent itemizing: 12.72%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $5,502
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $221.34
Population aged 65+: 19.56%
Median senior income: $58,852
Average savings per senior: $1,131.84
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $962.78
Number of estate returns: 769
Tax savings per estate: $2,501,651
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $70.98
Average auto loan account balance: $22,616
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,640.05
Annual tax savings per new auto: $300.78
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $20.04
Number of servers: 20,650
Median income for servers: $33,930
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $2,500
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $14.67
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 69
Estimated children born per year: 29,319
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $67.11
Number of qualifying children: 670,450
3. Massachusetts – Total Expected Value: $2,150.45
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $166.71
Percent standardizing: 87.65%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $190.19
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $679.96
Percent itemizing: 12.35%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $5,507
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $205.15
Population aged 65+: 18.47%
Median senior income: $63,240
Average savings per senior: $1,110.96
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $920.63
Number of estate returns: 1,403
Tax savings per estate: $2,312,262
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $80.16
Average auto loan account balance: $19,808
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,436.42
Annual tax savings per new auto: $263.70
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $25.64
Number of servers: 44,790
Median income for servers: $36,390
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $2,500
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $13.01
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 62
Estimated children born per year: 45,838
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $59.19
Number of qualifying children: 1,042,836
4. Connecticut – Total Expected Value: $2,125.21
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $170.02
Percent standardizing: 88.36%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $192.41
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $639.39
Percent itemizing: 11.64%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $5,495
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $264.51
Population aged 65+: 19.08%
Median senior income: $66,407
Average savings per senior: $1,386.60
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $871.84
Number of estate returns: 570
Tax savings per estate: $2,749,332
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $80.88
Average auto loan account balance: $20,096
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,457.31
Annual tax savings per new auto: $266.92
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $22.06
Number of servers: 19,450
Median income for servers: $36,460
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $2,500
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $13.34
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 69
Estimated children born per year: 23,981
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $63.17
Number of qualifying children: 567,716
5. Hawai’i – Total Expected Value: $2,077.91
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $170.65
Percent standardizing: 87.89%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $194.16
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $668.40
Percent itemizing: 12.11%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $5,521
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $293.40
Population aged 65+: 21.14%
Median senior income: $78,353
Average savings per senior: $1,388.04
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $706.82
Number of estate returns: 199
Tax savings per estate: $2,396,508
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $103.10
Average auto loan account balance: $23,915
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,734.25
Annual tax savings per new auto: $319.18
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $46.15
Number of servers: 12,890
Median income for servers: $53,230
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $3,000
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $19.47
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 97
Estimated children born per year: 13,138
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $69.91
Number of qualifying children: 235,865
6. New Jersey – Total Expected Value: $1,895.60
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $162.47
Percent standardizing: 86.34%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $188.18
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $729.56
Percent itemizing: 13.66%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $5,339
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $245.86
Population aged 65+: 17.72%
Median senior income: $67,177
Average savings per senior: $1,387.08
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $566.40
Number of estate returns: 1,028
Tax savings per estate: $2,520,851
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $83
Average auto loan account balance: $21,436
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,554.48
Annual tax savings per new auto: $276.67
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $23.29
Number of servers: 52,500
Median income for servers: $38,720
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $2,500
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $15.41
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 80
Estimated children born per year: 70,494
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $69.62
Number of qualifying children: 1,592,587
7. Virginia – Total Expected Value: $1,754.71
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $166.07
Percent standardizing: 86.29%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $192.44
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $737.80
Percent itemizing: 13.71%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $5,383
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $195.03
Population aged 65+: 17.2%
Median senior income: $64,938
Average savings per senior: $1,134
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $444.33
Number of estate returns: 623
Tax savings per estate: $2,931,056
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $92.16
Average auto loan account balance: $23,610
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,712.13
Annual tax savings per new auto: $307.19
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $26.71
Number of servers: 57,110
Median income for servers: $37,220
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $2,500
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $18.07
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 85
Estimated children born per year: 74,248
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $74.55
Number of qualifying children: 1,531,787
8. New York – Total Expected Value: $1,740.56
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $168.15
Percent standardizing: 89.54%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $187.79
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $576.17
Percent itemizing: 10.46%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $5,510
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $180.29
Population aged 65+: 18.58%
Median senior income: $57,125
Average savings per senior: $970.56
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $638.40
Number of estate returns: 1,915
Tax savings per estate: $3,200,000
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $66.90
Average auto loan account balance: $21,466
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,556.66
Annual tax savings per new auto: $285.89
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $32.52
Number of servers: 129,930
Median income for servers: $46,270
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $3,000
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $14.60
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 69
Estimated children born per year: 140,116
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $63.53
Number of qualifying children: 3,049,060
9. Delaware – Total Expected Value: $1,721.83
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $178.70
Percent standardizing: 90.46%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $197.55
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $533.03
Percent itemizing: 9.54%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $5,586
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $245.25
Population aged 65+: 21.32%
Median senior income: $65,590
Average savings per senior: $1,150.56
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $566.33
Number of estate returns: 88
Tax savings per estate: $3,200,000
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $81.70
Average auto loan account balance: $22,921
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,662.17
Annual tax savings per new auto: $309.48
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $30.74
Number of servers: 7,650
Median income for servers: $32,870
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $2,411
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $17.03
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 88
Estimated children born per year: 8,469
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $69.04
Number of qualifying children: 171,653
10. Maryland – Total Expected Value: $1,712.15
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $135.80
Percent standardizing: 79.76%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $170.26
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $596.08
Percent itemizing: 20.24%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $2,945
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $239.21
Population aged 65+: 17.26%
Median senior income: $72,118
Average savings per senior: $1,386
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $526.65
Number of estate returns: 656
Tax savings per estate: $2,452,180
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $101.93
Average auto loan account balance: $24,253
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,758.76
Annual tax savings per new auto: $287.95
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $23.42
Number of servers: 35,180
Median income for servers: $35,090
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $2,500
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $16.61
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 85
Estimated children born per year: 50,730
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $72.44
Number of qualifying children: 1,106,398
11. Iowa – Total Expected Value: $1,698.40
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $168.44
Percent standardizing: 93.57%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $180
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $289.93
Percent itemizing: 6.43%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $4,511
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $187.34
Population aged 65+: 18.55%
Median senior income: $51,575
Average savings per senior: $1,009.92
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $840.16
Number of estate returns: 560
Tax savings per estate: $2,197,393
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $92.27
Average auto loan account balance: $22,872
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,658.62
Annual tax savings per new auto: $249.39
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $14.26
Number of servers: 19,370
Median income for servers: $23,960
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $1,389
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $22.92
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 108
Estimated children born per year: 33,564
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $83.08
Number of qualifying children: 608,447
12. Rhode Island – Total Expected Value: $1,686.47
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $177.76
Percent standardizing: 91.71%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $193.83
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $473.49
Percent itemizing: 8.29%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $5,711
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $188.45
Population aged 65+: 19.38%
Median senior income: $57,865
Average savings per senior: $972.48
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $652.03
Number of estate returns: 166
Tax savings per estate: $2,199,072
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $83.05
Average auto loan account balance: $19,597
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,421.12
Annual tax savings per new auto: $270.52
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $37.78
Number of servers: 10,280
Median income for servers: $45,240
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $2,500
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $13.77
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 67
Estimated children born per year: 7,708
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $60.15
Number of qualifying children: 168,375
13. New Hampshire – Total Expected Value: $1,679.05
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $192.78
Percent standardizing: 92.15%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $209.20
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $459.41
Percent itemizing: 7.85%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $5,853
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $237.95
Population aged 65+: 20.68%
Median senior income: $63,279
Average savings per senior: $1,150.56
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $625.54
Number of estate returns: 152
Tax savings per estate: $2,975,697
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $60.96
Average auto loan account balance: $21,119
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,531.49
Annual tax savings per new auto: $298.81
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $29.75
Number of servers: 10,250
Median income for servers: $39,320
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $2,500
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $13.14
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 73
Estimated children born per year: 9,504
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $59.51
Number of qualifying children: 215,158
14. Florida – Total Expected Value: $1,665.24
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $147.64
Percent standardizing: 91.65%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $161.08
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $350.92
Percent itemizing: 8.35%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $4,204
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $215.90
Population aged 65+: 21.75%
Median senior income: $55,569
Average savings per senior: $992.64
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $748.66
Number of estate returns: 2,553
Tax savings per estate: $3,200,000
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $88.77
Average auto loan account balance: $25,617
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,857.68
Annual tax savings per new auto: $260.31
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $32.98
Number of servers: 188,070
Median income for servers: $29,320
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $2,335
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $15.28
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 80
Estimated children born per year: 166,748
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $65.11
Number of qualifying children: 3,552,273
15. Utah – Total Expected Value: $1,648.82
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $172.60
Percent standardizing: 86.01%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $200.67
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $715.91
Percent itemizing: 13.99%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $5,119
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $169.93
Population aged 65+: 12.16%
Median senior income: $67,374
Average savings per senior: $1,396.92
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $320.44
Number of estate returns: 188
Tax savings per estate: $2,545,569
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $121.84
Average auto loan account balance: $24,103
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,747.88
Annual tax savings per new auto: $317.28
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $15.25
Number of servers: 17,200
Median income for servers: $29,760
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $1,834
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $27.15
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 103
Estimated children born per year: 40,550
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $105.71
Number of qualifying children: 789,386
16. North Dakota – Total Expected Value: $1,642.13
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $170.35
Percent standardizing: 95.23%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $178.88
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $216.63
Percent itemizing: 4.77%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $4,541
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $172.24
Population aged 65+: 17.09%
Median senior income: $53,059
Average savings per senior: $1,008
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $871.51
Number of estate returns: 118
Tax savings per estate: $2,679,890
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $82.17
Average auto loan account balance: $25,462
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,846.44
Annual tax savings per new auto: $279.49
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $21.17
Number of servers: 4,900
Median income for servers: $29,620
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $2,032
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $24.64
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 105
Estimated children born per year: 8,941
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $83.42
Number of qualifying children: 151,348
17. Wyoming – Total Expected Value: $1,638.48
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $173.30
Percent standardizing: 94.61%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $183.17
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $246.72
Percent itemizing: 5.39%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $4,581
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $193.92
Population aged 65+: 19.19%
Median senior income: $53,962
Average savings per senior: $1,010.40
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $801.92
Number of estate returns: 69
Tax savings per estate: $3,200,000
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $102.52
Average auto loan account balance: $27,972
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $2,028.45
Annual tax savings per new auto: $309.73
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $16.05
Number of servers: 3,480
Median income for servers: $25,560
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $1,577
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $23.89
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 120
Estimated children born per year: 6,577
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $80.16
Number of qualifying children: 110,354
18. Illinois – Total Expected Value: $1,628.55
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $180.49
Percent standardizing: 91.13%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $198.05
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $500.17
Percent itemizing: 8.87%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $5,640
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $172.62
Population aged 65+: 17.58%
Median senior income: $56,316
Average savings per senior: $982.08
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $583.10
Number of estate returns: 1,332
Tax savings per estate: $2,640,164
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $85.08
Average auto loan account balance: $22,860
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,657.75
Annual tax savings per new auto: $311.64
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $18.65
Number of servers: 76,500
Median income for servers: $29,120
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $1,863
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $15.73
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 75
Estimated children born per year: 94,877
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $72.71
Number of qualifying children: 2,192,654
19. Minnesota – Total Expected Value: $1,620.57
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $185.68
Percent standardizing: 90.94%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $204.19
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $520.31
Percent itemizing: 9.06%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $5,741
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $179.11
Population aged 65+: 17.88%
Median senior income: $57,685
Average savings per senior: $1,001.76
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $536.42
Number of estate returns: 631
Tax savings per estate: $2,412,699
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $93.94
Average auto loan account balance: $21,357
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,548.75
Annual tax savings per new auto: $296.36
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $11.79
Number of servers: 34,070
Median income for servers: $24,280
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $1,182
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $16.87
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 88
Estimated children born per year: 47,877
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $76.45
Number of qualifying children: 1,084,846
20. Colorado – Total Expected Value: $1,575.53
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $172.65
Percent standardizing: 88.3%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $195.52
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $534.01
Percent itemizing: 11.7%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $4,566
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $184.32
Population aged 65+: 16.07%
Median senior income: $64,210
Average savings per senior: $1,146.96
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $485.97
Number of estate returns: 509
Tax savings per estate: $2,791,990
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $88.39
Average auto loan account balance: $24,381
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,768.04
Annual tax savings per new auto: $328.57
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $26.33
Number of servers: 39,200
Median income for servers: $34,980
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $2,500
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $16.31
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 74
Estimated children born per year: 47,692
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $67.56
Number of qualifying children: 987,816
21. Nevada – Total Expected Value: $1,547.37
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $176.70
Percent standardizing: 91.37%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $193.39
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $484.45
Percent itemizing: 8.63%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $5,612
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $192.73
Population aged 65+: 17.37%
Median senior income: $59,338
Average savings per senior: $1,109.52
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $449.46
Number of estate returns: 214
Tax savings per estate: $3,200,000
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $121.91
Average auto loan account balance: $26,667
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,933.82
Annual tax savings per new auto: $361.74
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $30.40
Number of servers: 37,470
Median income for servers: $24,960
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $1,586
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $17.71
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 85
Estimated children born per year: 26,978
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $74.02
Number of qualifying children: 563,876
22. South Dakota – Total Expected Value: $1,531.80
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $173.74
Percent standardizing: 95.39%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $182.13
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $211.18
Percent itemizing: 4.61%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $4,585
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $185.06
Population aged 65+: 18.45%
Median senior income: $53,981
Average savings per senior: $1,003.20
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $712.96
Number of estate returns: 139
Tax savings per estate: $2,225,928
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $123.89
Average auto loan account balance: $23,388
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,696.03
Annual tax savings per new auto: $259.18
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $18.56
Number of servers: 6,510
Median income for servers: $29,220
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $1,514
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $24.44
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 125
Estimated children born per year: 10,605
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $81.97
Number of qualifying children: 177,865
23. Washington – Total Expected Value: $1,525.22
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $175.56
Percent standardizing: 88.16%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $199.15
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $305.45
Percent itemizing: 11.84%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $2,579
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $195.48
Population aged 65+: 17.14%
Median senior income: $63,963
Average savings per senior: $1,140.48
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $645.08
Number of estate returns: 1,052
Tax savings per estate: $2,272,053
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $89.13
Average auto loan account balance: $24,965
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,810.39
Annual tax savings per new auto: $335.09
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $24.72
Number of servers: 39,770
Median income for servers: $47,490
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $3,000
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $17.95
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 81
Estimated children born per year: 66,493
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $71.84
Number of qualifying children: 1,331,012
24. Nebraska – Total Expected Value: $1,496.91
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $166.37
Percent standardizing: 93.68%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $177.59
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $283.24
Percent itemizing: 6.32%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $4,481
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $174.61
Population aged 65+: 17.23%
Median senior income: $55,124
Average savings per senior: $1,013.28
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $664.08
Number of estate returns: 255
Tax savings per estate: $2,413,886
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $77.10
Average auto loan account balance: $22,598
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,638.75
Annual tax savings per new auto: $244.77
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $23.66
Number of servers: 11,450
Median income for servers: $34,750
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $2,395
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $20.80
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 98
Estimated children born per year: 19,283
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $87.04
Number of qualifying children: 403,395
25. Montana – Total Expected Value: $1,462.08
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $157.74
Percent standardizing: 91.67%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $172.08
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $364.62
Percent itemizing: 8.33%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $4,375
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $207.57
Population aged 65+: 20.48%
Median senior income: $54,222
Average savings per senior: $1,013.76
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $547.15
Number of estate returns: 129
Tax savings per estate: $2,289,512
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $84.19
Average auto loan account balance: $24,052
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,744.19
Annual tax savings per new auto: $254.34
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $13.55
Number of servers: 6,780
Median income for servers: $22,530
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $1,330
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $17.73
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 88
Estimated children born per year: 9,570
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $69.53
Number of qualifying children: 187,651
26. Kansas – Total Expected Value: $1,443.23
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $165.73
Percent standardizing: 93.2%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $177.82
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $304.01
Percent itemizing: 6.8%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $4,471
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $176.76
Population aged 65+: 17.63%
Median senior income: $52,955
Average savings per senior: $1,002.72
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $580.18
Number of estate returns: 271
Tax savings per estate: $2,871,292
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $90.25
Average auto loan account balance: $23,725
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,720.47
Annual tax savings per new auto: $256.39
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $20.70
Number of servers: 18,130
Median income for servers: $33,560
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $1,981
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $21.32
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 97
Estimated children born per year: 28,594
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $84.27
Number of qualifying children: 565,131
27. North Carolina – Total Expected Value: $1,406.74
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $156.37
Percent standardizing: 91.86%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $170.22
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $351.84
Percent itemizing: 8.14%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $4,324
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $175.72
Population aged 65+: 17.68%
Median senior income: $51,285
Average savings per senior: $994.08
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $524.44
Number of estate returns: 798
Tax savings per estate: $3,200,000
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $84.84
Average auto loan account balance: $24,160
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,752.02
Annual tax savings per new auto: $252.51
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $17.43
Number of servers: 68,260
Median income for servers: $28,100
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $1,685
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $19.06
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 84
Estimated children born per year: 92,819
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $77.03
Number of qualifying children: 1,875,393
28. Pennsylvania – Total Expected Value: $1,335.73
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $156.62
Percent standardizing: 92.9%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $168.60
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $308.65
Percent itemizing: 7.1%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $4,345
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $198.09
Population aged 65+: 20.04%
Median senior income: $52,474
Average savings per senior: $988.32
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $498.81
Number of estate returns: 1,116
Tax savings per estate: $2,787,456
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $68.31
Average auto loan account balance: $21,186
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,536.35
Annual tax savings per new auto: $222.52
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $20.39
Number of servers: 74,230
Median income for servers: $30,280
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $2,126
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $16.93
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 85
Estimated children born per year: 105,610
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $67.92
Number of qualifying children: 2,117,927
29. Idaho – Total Expected Value: $1,293.47
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $167.89
Percent standardizing: 91.44%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $183.61
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $385.89
Percent itemizing: 8.56%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $4,509
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $178.69
Population aged 65+: 17.42%
Median senior income: $57,539
Average savings per senior: $1,025.76
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $342.99
Number of estate returns: 125
Tax savings per estate: $2,344,160
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $88.09
Average auto loan account balance: $25,254
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,831.35
Annual tax savings per new auto: $275.27
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $16.97
Number of servers: 10,710
Median income for servers: $30,830
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $1,832
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $20.74
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 92
Estimated children born per year: 17,719
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $92.20
Number of qualifying children: 393,863
30. Arizona – Total Expected Value: $1,290
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $181.01
Percent standardizing: 91.11%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $198.67
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $343.65
Percent itemizing: 8.89%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $3,866
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $193.90
Population aged 65+: 19.35%
Median senior income: $57,753
Average savings per senior: $1,002.24
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $354.93
Number of estate returns: 424
Tax savings per estate: $2,774,078
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $91.03
Average auto loan account balance: $26,474
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,919.82
Annual tax savings per new auto: $359.80
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $28.24
Number of servers: 49,860
Median income for servers: $36,900
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $2,500
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $18.45
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 80
Estimated children born per year: 61,138
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $78.79
Number of qualifying children: 1,305,533
31. Texas – Total Expected Value: $1,287.84
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $154.84
Percent standardizing: 92.04%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $168.23
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $342.28
Percent itemizing: 7.96%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $4,299
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $137.11
Population aged 65+: 13.75%
Median senior income: $55,533
Average savings per senior: $996.96
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $419.14
Number of estate returns: 1,815
Tax savings per estate: $3,095,637
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $106.38
Average auto loan account balance: $29,760
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $2,158.12
Annual tax savings per new auto: $309.26
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $16.74
Number of servers: 196,480
Median income for servers: $27,790
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $1,599
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $22.26
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 92
Estimated children born per year: 298,388
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $89.09
Number of qualifying children: 5,971,230
32. Vermont – Total Expected Value: $1,269.41
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $160.86
Percent standardizing: 94.06%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $171.02
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $262.77
Percent itemizing: 5.94%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $4,421
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $223.39
Population aged 65+: 22.15%
Median senior income: $55,201
Average savings per senior: $1,008.48
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $397.97
Number of estate returns: 57
Tax savings per estate: $2,309,439
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $131.56
Average auto loan account balance: $21,410
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,552.60
Annual tax savings per new auto: $228.80
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $25.90
Number of servers: 3,360
Median income for servers: $61,150
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $3,000
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $10.45
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 59
Estimated children born per year: 3,456
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $56.52
Number of qualifying children: 93,468
33. Georgia – Total Expected Value: $1,262.06
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $137.43
Percent standardizing: 88.19%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $155.83
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $477.19
Percent itemizing: 11.81%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $4,042
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $151.75
Population aged 65+: 15.41%
Median senior income: $53,005
Average savings per senior: $984.96
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $298.70
Number of estate returns: 531
Tax savings per estate: $2,727,092
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $83.37
Average auto loan account balance: $26,175
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,898.14
Annual tax savings per new auto: $255.74
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $11.03
Number of servers: 66,390
Median income for servers: $19,460
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $1,129
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $21.50
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 90
Estimated children born per year: 104,255
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $81.08
Number of qualifying children: 1,965,455
34. Maine – Total Expected Value: $1,250.47
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $162.93
Percent standardizing: 94.02%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $173.30
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $265.89
Percent itemizing: 5.98%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $4,445
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $230.09
Population aged 65+: 22.94%
Median senior income: $54,821
Average savings per senior: $1,003.20
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $409.50
Number of estate returns: 106
Tax savings per estate: $2,696,538
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $81.86
Average auto loan account balance: $22,018
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,596.69
Annual tax savings per new auto: $236.59
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $28.92
Number of servers: 8,000
Median income for servers: $45,590
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $3,000
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $13.08
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 73
Estimated children born per year: 9,131
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $58.18
Number of qualifying children: 203,049
35. Alaska – Total Expected Value: $1,249.04
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $196.87
Percent standardizing: 94.37%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $208.62
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $333.99
Percent itemizing: 5.63%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $5,929
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $194.58
Population aged 65+: 14.04%
Median senior income: $67,208
Average savings per senior: $1,385.52
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $305.61
Number of estate returns: 34
Tax savings per estate: $3,097,324
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $98.02
Average auto loan account balance: $27,246
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,975.81
Annual tax savings per new auto: $390.52
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $18.98
Number of servers: 3,920
Median income for servers: $27,370
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $2,208
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $18.89
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 85
Estimated children born per year: 6,509
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $82.10
Number of qualifying children: 141,458
36. South Carolina – Total Expected Value: $1,242.36
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $156
Percent standardizing: 92.3%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $169.01
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $332.03
Percent itemizing: 7.7%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $4,315
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $193.53
Population aged 65+: 19.32%
Median senior income: $52,841
Average savings per senior: $1,001.76
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $374.87
Number of estate returns: 357
Tax savings per estate: $2,568,375
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $79.93
Average auto loan account balance: $23,949
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,736.72
Annual tax savings per new auto: $249.79
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $10.47
Number of servers: 40,640
Median income for servers: $18,400
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $823
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $19.90
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 93
Estimated children born per year: 48,671
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $75.62
Number of qualifying children: 924,833
37. Missouri – Total Expected Value: $1,220.91
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $163.32
Percent standardizing: 93.66%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $174.38
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $281.12
Percent itemizing: 6.34%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $4,432
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $182.13
Population aged 65+: 18.37%
Median senior income: $50,535
Average savings per senior: $991.20
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $384.28
Number of estate returns: 435
Tax savings per estate: $2,501,515
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $92.92
Average auto loan account balance: $22,825
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,655.21
Annual tax savings per new auto: $244.52
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $18.43
Number of servers: 40,110
Median income for servers: $26,580
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $1,694
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $20.61
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 95
Estimated children born per year: 58,375
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $78.11
Number of qualifying children: 1,105,889
38. Alabama – Total Expected Value: $1,193.24
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $158.01
Percent standardizing: 92.59%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $170.67
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $321.02
Percent itemizing: 7.41%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $4,330
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $180.42
Population aged 65+: 18.25%
Median senior income: $47,884
Average savings per senior: $988.80
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $344.66
Number of estate returns: 228
Tax savings per estate: $3,200,000
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $76.51
Average auto loan account balance: $25,828
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,872.98
Annual tax savings per new auto: $270.35
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $7.62
Number of servers: 26,890
Median income for servers: $21,880
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $863
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $22.18
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 93
Estimated children born per year: 46,960
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $82.82
Number of qualifying children: 876,603
39. Wisconsin – Total Expected Value: $1,178.27
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $163.86
Percent standardizing: 93.81%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $174.67
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $275.66
Percent itemizing: 6.19%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $4,455
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $192.82
Population aged 65+: 19.17%
Median senior income: $52,916
Average savings per senior: $1,005.60
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $376.21
Number of estate returns: 473
Tax savings per estate: $2,309,207
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $66.32
Average auto loan account balance: $21,092
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,529.54
Annual tax savings per new auto: $227.13
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $17.01
Number of servers: 36,100
Median income for servers: $29,080
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $1,665
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $15.65
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 80
Estimated children born per year: 45,430
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $70.74
Number of qualifying children: 1,026,935
40. Ohio – Total Expected Value: $1,104.07
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $160.32
Percent standardizing: 94.73%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $169.23
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $231.32
Percent itemizing: 5.27%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $4,390
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $184.30
Population aged 65+: 18.79%
Median senior income: $49,869
Average savings per senior: $981.12
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $330.90
Number of estate returns: 653
Tax savings per estate: $2,851,124
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $82.18
Average auto loan account balance: $21,158
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,534.32
Annual tax savings per new auto: $224.54
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $23.12
Number of servers: 68,920
Median income for servers: $36,420
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $2,349
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $18.94
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 92
Estimated children born per year: 106,550
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $72.98
Number of qualifying children: 2,053,049
41. Michigan – Total Expected Value: $1,074.86
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $160.33
Percent standardizing: 93.97%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $170.61
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $265.02
Percent itemizing: 6.03%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $4,398
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $191.46
Population aged 65+: 19.25%
Median senior income: $52,764
Average savings per senior: $994.56
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $273.74
Number of estate returns: 466
Tax savings per estate: $2,821,871
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $72.98
Average auto loan account balance: $19,503
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,414.31
Annual tax savings per new auto: $207.33
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $24.70
Number of servers: 59,230
Median income for servers: $36,070
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $2,500
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $17.24
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 83
Estimated children born per year: 82,799
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $69.39
Number of qualifying children: 1,666,723
42. Tennessee – Total Expected Value: $1,048.62
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $164.83
Percent standardizing: 94.15%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $175.07
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $78.94
Percent itemizing: 5.85%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $1,349
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $172.88
Population aged 65+: 17.49%
Median senior income: $50,271
Average savings per senior: $988.32
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $418.02
Number of estate returns: 434
Tax savings per estate: $3,079,832
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $98.55
Average auto loan account balance: $25,414
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,842.95
Annual tax savings per new auto: $272.99
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $16.79
Number of servers: 49,440
Median income for servers: $28,430
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $1,466
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $20.85
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 91
Estimated children born per year: 66,681
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $77.76
Number of qualifying children: 1,243,136
43. Indiana – Total Expected Value: $1,047.47
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $165.62
Percent standardizing: 94.67%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $174.94
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $237.61
Percent itemizing: 5.33%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $4,461
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $170.34
Population aged 65+: 17.22%
Median senior income: $50,047
Average savings per senior: $989.28
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $267.74
Number of estate returns: 323
Tax savings per estate: $2,655,062
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $89.38
Average auto loan account balance: $22,161
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,607.06
Annual tax savings per new auto: $238.98
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $15.23
Number of servers: 40,740
Median income for servers: $27,560
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $1,533
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $20.80
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 97
Estimated children born per year: 66,638
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $80.75
Number of qualifying children: 1,293,266
44. Oklahoma – Total Expected Value: $1,030.67
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $114.61
Percent standardizing: 93.29%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $122.85
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $225.30
Percent itemizing: 6.71%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $3,359
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $164.01
Population aged 65+: 16.7%
Median senior income: $49,495
Average savings per senior: $982.08
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $325.15
Number of estate returns: 182
Tax savings per estate: $2,999,242
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $76.43
Average auto loan account balance: $26,822
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,945.06
Annual tax savings per new auto: $217.75
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $12.42
Number of servers: 24,130
Median income for servers: $19,690
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $1,241
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $23.70
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 96
Estimated children born per year: 39,784
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $89.07
Number of qualifying children: 747,639
45. New Mexico – Total Expected Value: $970.25
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $110.59
Percent standardizing: 93.91%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $117.76
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $205.90
Percent itemizing: 6.09%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $3,381
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $194.76
Population aged 65+: 19.95%
Median senior income: $50,637
Average savings per senior: $976.32
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $261.05
Number of estate returns: 82
Tax savings per estate: $3,067,841
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $83.70
Average auto loan account balance: $29,098
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $2,110.11
Annual tax savings per new auto: $237.79
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $22.89
Number of servers: 12,550
Median income for servers: $30,260
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $2,269
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $18.29
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 84
Estimated children born per year: 17,629
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $73.07
Number of qualifying children: 352,056
46. Arkansas – Total Expected Value: $967.17
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $116.78
Percent standardizing: 94.11%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $124.09
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $199.63
Percent itemizing: 5.89%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $3,388
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $177.83
Population aged 65+: 17.96%
Median senior income: $44,695
Average savings per senior: $990.24
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $276.55
Number of estate returns: 110
Tax savings per estate: $3,200,000
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $75.77
Average auto loan account balance: $26,742
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,939.26
Annual tax savings per new auto: $219
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $12.64
Number of servers: 16,900
Median income for servers: $26,280
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $1,358
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $21.64
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 91
Estimated children born per year: 27,543
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $86.34
Number of qualifying children: 549,483
47. Kentucky – Total Expected Value: $956.64
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $116.53
Percent standardizing: 94.41%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $123.43
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $190.03
Percent itemizing: 5.59%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $3,399
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $175.56
Population aged 65+: 17.78%
Median senior income: $44,617
Average savings per senior: $987.36
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $277.14
Number of estate returns: 180
Tax savings per estate: $2,995,833
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $81.47
Average auto loan account balance: $23,443
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,700.02
Annual tax savings per new auto: $192.60
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $13.06
Number of servers: 26,220
Median income for servers: $22,410
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $1,350
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $21.36
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 92
Estimated children born per year: 41,563
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $81.48
Number of qualifying children: 792,725
48. Mississippi – Total Expected Value: $916.53
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $112.64
Percent standardizing: 93.46%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $120.52
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $219.91
Percent itemizing: 6.54%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $3,365
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $170.44
Population aged 65+: 17.57%
Median senior income: $41,712
Average savings per senior: $970.08
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $237.90
Number of estate returns: 91
Tax savings per estate: $3,200,000
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $57.18
Average auto loan account balance: $25,845
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,874.21
Annual tax savings per new auto: $210.21
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $7.81
Number of servers: 15,600
Median income for servers: $19,970
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $875
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $22.89
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 100
Estimated children born per year: 28,012
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $87.77
Number of qualifying children: 537,144
49. Louisiana – Total Expected Value: $890.52
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $112.08
Percent standardizing: 93.64%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $119.69
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $214.44
Percent itemizing: 6.36%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $3,371
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $169.11
Population aged 65+: 17.37%
Median senior income: $44,495
Average savings per senior: $973.44
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $212.15
Number of estate returns: 149
Tax savings per estate: $2,758,839
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $64.63
Average auto loan account balance: $27,828
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $2,018.01
Annual tax savings per new auto: $226.76
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $9.74
Number of servers: 31,300
Median income for servers: $16,630
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $845
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $23.99
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 103
Estimated children born per year: 46,476
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $84.39
Number of qualifying children: 817,560
50. West Virginia – Total Expected Value: $774.95
Standard deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $122.42
Percent standardizing: 96.54%
Savings per tax return using standard deduction: $126.80
SALT deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $120.24
Percent itemizing: 3.46%
Savings per tax return using itemization: $3,475
Senior deduction
Expected value across all tax returns: $211.56
Population aged 65+: 21.48%
Median senior income: $44,465
Average savings per senior: $984.96
Estate and gift tax
Expected value across all tax returns: $123.30
Number of estate returns: 40
Tax savings per estate: $2,358,350
Auto loan interest
Expected value across all tax returns: $87.36
Average auto loan account balance: $26,128
Annual interest rate payments at 7.86%: $1,894.73
Annual tax savings per new auto: $219.50
Tips
Expected value across all returns: $17.20
Number of servers: 8,490
Median income for servers: $30,000
Annual tax savings per tipped worker: $2,103
Trump Account
Expected value across all tax returns: $20.02
Children born per 1,000 women age 20-34: 96
Estimated children born per year: 15,318
Child Tax Credit
Expected value across all returns: $72.85
Number of qualifying children: 278,697
Methodology
The expected value across eight provisions pertaining to individual income taxes in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (July 4, 2025) was calculated for all 50 states. Projections of average savings per application of each provision were also calculated. Calculations are based on the most recent tax return, demographic and financial data. Unless otherwise noted, pre- and post-OBBBA deduction and credit amounts are based on the 2025 tax year.
1. Standard deductions.
The new standard deduction thresholds for single, married, and head of household filings are compared to the preexisting 2025 levels to estimate the average savings, based on the state’s median household income and prorated by household type. Tax return data was used to determine the share of residents opting to use the standard deduction rather than itemize to determine the expected value of savings across all returns in the state.
2. SALT deduction.
Pre- and post-OBBBA state and local tax (SALT) deductions for single, married and heads of households are compared to the average amount itemized across all itemized returns to determine the expected savings for applicable households. The expected value across all tax returns in the state was then found by adjusting these figures by the percentage of tax returns opting for itemized deductions.
3. Senior deduction.
Statewide senior marriage and singlehood rates determine the proration of respective standard deduction thresholds in each state. After reducing the median household income for seniors by these pro-rated standard deduction thresholds, as well as the existing senior deductions from pre-OBBBA, the new senior deductions are applied. The marginal tax rate before the new senior deduction is used to calculate the tax savings before and after the new deduction. The expected value across all tax returns in the state is then determined by adjusting these figures for the percentage of the state population that is aged 65 and over.
4. Estate and gift tax exclusion.
Estate and gift tax exclusions are calculated at individual exclusion levels, using recent estate tax data as proxies. The average estate tax paid is used to derive the value of the estate, including the lifetime exclusion amount in the corresponding tax year ($12.06 million for single filers; 2022). The increased lifetime exclusion under OBBBA begins in the 2026 tax year, so the taxes paid with this new exclusion threshold are compared to taxes paid with an estimated $7 million reverted threshold, which otherwise would have occurred when the relevant Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provision expires. The expected value across all tax returns in the state was then determined using the relative frequency of estate returns compared to all household returns.
5. Auto loan interest deduction.
The average auto loan balance in each state is used as a proxy for the average balance for new loans originated. Applying the latest aggregate interest rate data for the first half of 2025, annual interest rate payments were summed and then deducted from median incomes, up to the $25,000 deduction threshold. The marginal tax rate pre-auto loan deduction — prorated by the frequency of single, married, or heads of household filers — is used to determine the additional tax savings from the deduction. The expected value across all tax returns is calculated by adjusting for the rate of households holding auto debt in that state.
6. Tips deduction.
Median earnings for servers in accommodation and food services are assumed to be fully from tips. The median earnings for this profession in each state are reduced by the 2025 OBBBA standard deduction for single filers ($15,750), with income then further reduced by the deduction on tips for up to $25,000 in remaining income. The savings with and without the new tips deduction are calculated based on the marginal tax rate of the income after it is reduced by the standard deduction. The expected value across all tax returns in a state is calculated by adjusting these savings by the relative frequency of waiters and waitresses compared to the state’s population of people aged 18 to 65.
7. Trump Accounts.
The number of women aged 20 to 34 is compared to the statewide fertility rate in that age range to estimate the number of babies born per year. Each of those babies would receive $1,000 in a tax-advantaged account (long-term growth on this investment is not accounted for). The expected value across all tax returns in a state is calculated by distributing the total payout to Trump accounts in-state over one year among tax returns for all households.
8. Child Tax Credit. The number of children qualifying for the Child Tax Credit is derived from the latest tax return data. Households save $200 more annually per qualifying child. The expected value across all tax returns in a state is calculated by averaging the total additional dollars credited to taxpayers by the number of total tax returns.
Adding the expected value for each of the eight provisions together leads to the total expected value from OBBBA, which states are ultimately ranked on.
Data Sources
U.S. Census Bureau. S1903: Median Income in the Past 12 Months (in 2023 Inflation-Adjusted Dollars). data.census.gov. Web. https://data.census.gov/table?q=s1903
U.S. Census Bureau. ACSDP1Y2023.DP05: ACS Demographic and Housing Estimates. data.census.gov, 2025. Web. https://data.census.gov/table/ACSDP1Y2023.DP05
U.S. Internal Revenue Service. SOI Tax Stats – Historic Table 2: Individual Income and Tax Data, by State and Size of Adjusted Gross Income, Tax Year 2022. IRS, 16 Jan. 2025. Web. https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-historic-table-2
U.S. Census Bureau. ACSST1Y2023.S0103: Population 65 Years and Over. data.census.gov. Web. https://data.census.gov/table/ACSST1Y2023.S0103?q=s0103
U.S. Internal Revenue Service. SOI Tax Stats – State Data: FY 2024. Returns filed, taxes collected, and refunds by state. 30 May 2025. Web. https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-state-data-fy-2024
Burner Prudenti Law, P.C. “Stay Ahead of Estate Tax Changes in 2026.” Burner Prudenti Law, P.C., 2 June 2025. Web. 10 Sept. 2025. https://burnerlaw.com/blog/stay-ahead-of-estate-tax-changes-in-2026/
Experian. “Average Auto Loan Debt Grew 2.1% to $24,297 in 2024.” Experian Ask Experian Blog, 24 Apr. 2025. Web. 10 Sept. 2025. https://www.experian.com/blogs/ask-experian/research/auto-loan-debt-study/
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US). Finance Rate on Consumer Installment Loans at Commercial Banks, New Autos 60-Month Loan [RIFLPBCIANM60NM]. FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, last updated 8 July 2025. Web. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RIFLPBCIANM60NM
U.S. Census Bureau. “Debt for Households, by Type of Debt and States: 2022.” State-Level Wealth, Asset Ownership, & Debt of Households Detailed Tables: 2022. U.S. Census Bureau, page last revised 12 Feb. 2025. Web. https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2022/demo/wealth/state-wealth-asset-ownership.html
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. “May 2024 OEWS Research Estimates by State and Industry.” Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, last modified 23 July 2025. Web. 10 Sept. 2025. https://www.bls.gov/oes/oes_research_2024.htm
U.S. Census Bureau. “DP02: Selected Social Characteristics in the United States.” ACS Data Profile (1-Year Estimates), U.S. Census Bureau, 2023. Web. 11 Sept. 2025. https://data.census.gov/table?q=dp02
The analysis presented herein is a research study on the potential economic and financial impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). The results are based on a hypothetical model and the implementation of the OBBBA’s provisions. These assumptions may not materialize, and the actual outcomes could differ materially from those projected.
SmartAsset.com is not intended to provide legal advice, tax advice, accounting advice or financial advice (Other than referring users to third party advisers registered or chartered as fiduciaries (“Adviser(s)”) with a regulatory body in the United States). Articles, opinions, and tools are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. SmartAsset suggests that you consult your accountant, tax, or legal advisor concerning your individual situation.
The above statistics have been obtained from sources SmartAsset believes to be reliable, but SmartAsset cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness.
