We can predict flu season. We know when cold and allergy meds will fly off the shelves. So why not seasonal depression? For the fourth year, Thriveworks has analyzed Google search trends and weather data to pinpoint when seasonal depression hits hardest, giving people a chance to get ahead of it with preventative care or treatment.
This year, the pattern is holding: Seasonal depression is expected to peak in the third week of November. That’s when searches for seasonal depression historically spike. And true to form, search interest already climbed 125% from mid-August to late September (Aug. 10-Sept. 28)—the typical seasonal ramp-up as days get shorter and temperatures drop.
Before diving into the research, let’s clarify what seasonal depression means. Officially, it’s called seasonal affective disorder (SAD), and it’s a type of depression that follows a seasonal pattern.
“Seasonal depression describes episodes of major depressive disorder that occur at a specific time of year—most commonly fall and winter,” explains Laura Harris, a licensed clinical mental health counselor at Thriveworks. “The key characteristic is that symptoms appear during a particular season and then resolve when that season ends.”
Symptoms of seasonal depression match those of other types of depression. These include:
To meet the diagnostic criteria for seasonal depression, symptoms must resolve at the end of the seasonal period. For example, someone might develop symptoms at the beginning of fall and then see them conclude at the start of spring. They must also experience this seasonal depressive pattern for at least two years.
The goal was to understand exactly when seasonal depression might reach its peak this year to better help those who suffer from it.
“By knowing how seasonal triggers affect you and when they typically hit, you can plan ahead,” says Heidi Faust, a licensed clinical social worker.
The strategy? Get more done during your good months, and set yourself up for success during the hard ones. “This might mean scheduling important appointments with reminders during the fall and winter months—things like annual checkups or therapy sessions,” Faust explains. “You can also build in activities that help counter seasonal depression, like regular social plans or outdoor time.”
Google search data for “seasonal depression” over the last five years (U.S. searches only) was analyzed to predict this year’s peak. The pattern is consistent: Searches spike in mid-November, year after year.
Researchers conducted a comparison of the eight-week time period from Aug. 10 to Sept. 28 for “seasonal depression” search data for the last six years to gain insights into this year’s peak.
Over the past six years, there has been steady growth in search interest for the term “seasonal depression,” indicative of expanded awareness of the affliction. Between the years of 2019 and 2025, search interest for this topic has grown at an average annual rate of 7%.
A comparison of the eight-week buildup period revealed that search interest in seasonal depression followed its typical seasonal pattern, increasing 125% from mid-August to late September as fall approached.
This year’s Google Trends analysis also showed where search interest for “seasonal depression” was the highest over the last five years. The top 10 metros are geographically diverse but share a common thread: dramatic temperature shifts in the fall.
We then looked at weather data, including average monthly temperatures, for these 10 metros. The team discovered that throughout the months of September, October, November, and December—when seasonal depression tends to peak—these top 10 cities experience an average temperature drop of 27.95 degrees.
This aligns with the Google Trends research, showing that search interest peaks between October and November with consistently high search volume through mid-December. The data suggests that rapid seasonal changes—both temperature drops and decreasing daylight hours—drive the spike. Most of these top 10 cities are in the northern U.S., where fall brings both dramatic temperature shifts and significant daylight loss, which together contribute to seasonal depression symptoms.
Kate Hanselman, a board-certified psychiatric nurse practitioner at Thriveworks, recommends a few actions that can help you manage symptoms of depression during seasonal changes.
Start With Environmental Changes
In addition to practicing the above strategies, it’s important to seek professional help. “Come see us,” says Hanselman. “Meet with a mental health provider to discuss what options are available to make your symptoms more manageable, whether that’s medication, therapy, or a combination of both.”
Cognitive behavioral therapy is an evidence-based approach to treating depression. Within this modality, clients are taught to identify and change unhelpful thoughts and behaviors. The role of the therapist is to teach skills that help positively align the relationship between thoughts, feelings, and behaviors.
If you’re experiencing symptoms of seasonal depression, please reach out for help.
This story was produced by Thriveworks and reviewed and distributed by Stacker.
