Two recent Change Research polls affirm what seasoned political consultants and observers know: at this point in an election cycle, the election cake is already baked. The large percentage of those who will vote in this year’s elections have made up their minds for whom they will vote. Fewer than 10% are undecided.
Except for those incessant and irritating emails and texts from candidates begging for money and the offensive TV ads and mailers filled with untruths and promises the candidates couldn’t keep even if they wanted to, this has been an extremely quiet election. Seldom do you hear conversations among friends about candidates or their platforms. And, except for candidate signs on public rights-of-way, few private yards have signs.
Why so quiet? Quiet elections portend one of two things. The first is that people are relatively happy about how things are going, with the elected officials who represent them and the status quo. Or else folks are disillusioned, disappointed and disgusted; they want change, but don’t want to talk about it. They will demonstrate their angst on election day.
Despite what some say, Donald Trump IS on the ballot. Recent public opinion polls confirm Tar Heels aren’t in a good mood and don’t think the state is headed in the right direction. We saw evidence of this in the March primaries, when voters in Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger’s home district, voters who had elected him for a quarter of a century, turned the most powerful politician in our state out of office.
Our Republican-led legislature got the message and determined to blunt the angst. They passed a budget (two years late) and, hoping to turn out faithful supporters, put three constitutional amendments on the ballot.
When opposition to the amendments arose, especially from locally elected officials upset about having property taxes capped, lawmakers came up with another scheme: a gas tax moratorium.
Make no mistake. All of these are little more than political ploys. The amendments are bad government. Even the gas tax relief, which will take weeks to experience, expires in November. They are just issues to run on and aren’t meaningful, permanent relief.
A word on polls. It is more difficult today than in times past to get dependable polling results. Hardly anyone has landline telephones, the traditional survey method. Others won’t answer a mobile call if they don’t recognize the number calling. Online, mail and other polling methods are questionable. And it is difficult to accurately predict unaffiliated voters, now the largest percentage in the state, will sort out. For these reasons we don’t rely on surveys as much as we once did. Polling companies are working hard to make their products more scientific and reliable, but we say take them with a grain of salt. We will find out how accurate they were Nov. 4.
No matter how interesting the chatter on national politics might be, we are more interested in and knowledgeable about North Carolina elections, so let’s give you our predictions.
Despite all the forecasts, we’re not expecting another “Blue Wave” election like we witnessed in 2018; maybe more of a blue ripple. North Carolina’s General Assembly will remain in the control of Republicans, but Democrats will elect enough representatives in at least one chamber to eliminate the veto-proof majorities the GOP has enjoyed, which was a major goal of the Democratic Party. It could occur in both chambers, but at least in one.
I’m not sure Roy Cooper will win by the double-digit margins polls have shown but he will become our first Democratic Senator since Kay Hagan in 2008. All three of the Constitutional Amendments will pass and we will rue the day we did so.
Anita Earls will retain her seat on the State Supreme Court. Republicans have a 12-3 majority on the Court of Appeals. Three seats, all currently held by Democrats, are up for election. It’s slightly possible Republicans might run the table, but we believe the final outcome will maintain the current 12-3 mix.
Our congressional delegation will still have a Republican plurality, but instead of the current 10-4 margin, it will be 9-5, with Democrats gaining the 11th District.
I predict we won’t experience another “October Surprise” like that in 2020, when it was disclosed that Senate candidate Cal Cunningham sent a number of illicit sexual text messages to a woman not his wife. Those revelations sent Thom Tillis to the U.S. Senate.
But Trump is so unpredictable there’s no telling what he might come up with or the affect it might have on election outcomes. Bakers know that a big jolt will make a cake fall.
If none occur, this election cake is already baked and we can’t wait to taste it.
Tom Campbell is a Hall of Fame North Carolina broadcaster and columnist who has covered North Carolina public policy issues since 1965. Contact him at tomcamp@ncspin.com
